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macroeconomic analysis 2023

Global scenario 2023: a macroeconomic analysis

What to Expect in 2023?

The prospects for 2023, particularly for advanced economies, do not appear predominantly reassuring. Based on the latest macroeconomic and geopolitical analyses, global growth is projected to remain stable at around 2.2% in 2023, followed by a limited and less productive increase in 2024. Specifically, the United States market is expected to experience a period of stagnation, Europe may benefit from a modest recovery, while China is predicted to have limited growth below pre-pandemic levels.

Examining the monetary landscape, the inflation rate is slowly decreasing, although significant concerns persist. The war in Ukraine has caused a temporary impact on market prices in the energy sector, signalling deeper-rooted and elevated underlying inflation in the Eurozone, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Future potential inflationary pressures could be linked to the recovery of the Chinese market and oil prices due to production cuts by OPEC+. Monitoring the trends of agricultural commodities is also crucial as events like the Russia-Ukraine war and the climate phenomenon "El Niño" could influence global production stability and related market prices.

The effects resulting from inflation-driven monetary tightening policies are currently under evaluation, as service prices are increasing to levels incompatible with the 2% inflation target. As a result, some major central banks have intervened by halting interest rate hikes, anticipating a possible chain effect from additional banking groups. However, the credit tightening policy is significantly evident due to the subsequent decrease in new loans to households and businesses, affecting domestic demand and the economic landscape. Businesses will have to navigate an unfavorable environment characterized by a general price increase, tighter credit conditions, and weak domestic demand. Therefore, an increase in corporate insolvencies is anticipated in advanced economies in the second half of the year.

Leading the global growth will be the category of emerging economies, while advanced economies will experience a foreseeable decline already in the early months of 2024. At the end of this reflection on the macroeconomic scenario concerning global financial and energy conditions, the prospects paint a far from encouraging picture. It will be necessary to invest in careful management of financial and economic levers within companies, with the goal of maintaining and solidifying the results achieved during the previous fiscal year and developing economic strategies aimed at preserving previous levels of service and collective well-being.